How many properties actually sold in Berlin during the first half of 2020?
Aktualisiert: 12. Nov. 2020
I always keep an eye on the developments of the Real Estate Markets in different regions. One thing I have noticed is that all predictions and sales forecast always focus on the properties on offer and their respecting offer prices. None of the available reports and forecasts actually take into account the amount the properties have indeed sold for.
Sometimes asking and selling prices can vary hugely. I therefore believe that looking at the actual sales price, provides a much better overview of the current market situation than looking at just the offer prices.
The Berlin Advisory Committee (Gutachterausschuss für Grundstückswerte in Berlin) provides a half yearly overview of actual property sales taken from real notary figures. I have had a look at this report and focused on the apartment sales for the Berlin area and have come to the following conclusion:
Overall, the sales dynamic on the Berlin real estate market has flattened. A very severe impact on sales can be seen in the residential and commercial building sector, which fell by 34%. I would suggest that two main reasons for this: the uncertainty caused by the rental cap (Mietendeckel) and the low supply of real estate. Furthermore, the supply (at “pre-Corona level”) and demand (pricing after the rental cap and crisis discount) were too far apart.
In the first half of 2020, there were 21% fewer sales cases of apartments than in the same period of the previous year. The trend of recent years is therefore continuing. Instead of 8,171 purchases, 6,489 purchases were still registered in the first half of 2020 even during Corona times.
The relatively stable real estate prices at a high price level, even during a pandemic, are a clear sign of a robust real estate market in Berlin with sustainable demand.
The monetary turnover in the first half of 2020 in the apartment submarket fell by 15% only. This meant that fewer apartments were sold but at a higher price level. The resulting price increase is 6%.
The development between rented and vacant apartments shows no significant differences in the first half of the year.
However, there are indications that supply and demand are drifting apart. In my opinion, rental caps, sharply increased prices and Corona have led to the decline in sales in the apartment submarket on the Berlin real estate market.
I totally agree with the expert opinions that with the end of the pandemic and due to the ongoing demand, there will be further increases in sales and moderate price increases in this sub-segment in Berlin
You can find the full report here.